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Sporting Ben Arous vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ariana
Ariana
12/10/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de Ben Arous

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sporting Ben Arous49%
×Draw28%
Ariana23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Ben Arous
1.34
Ariana
0.81

Sporting Ben Arous creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.98
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

Sporting Ben Arous
0.73
Ariana
1.71

finishing

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Ben Arous ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Ben Arous or draw
77%
Sporting Ben Arous or Ariana
72%
Draw or Ariana
51%

Winning margin

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
23%
Ariana wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
39%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
15%
Ariana 1+ goals
56%
Ariana 2+ goals
19%
Ariana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
68%
Ariana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Ben Arous at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.98 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ariana attack 0.89 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting Ben Arous scores more
49%
level
28%
Ariana scores more
23%

Sporting Ben Arous at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Sporting Ben Arous 1–1 Ariana

Sporting Ben Arous and Ariana drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Ben Arous in Ben Arous.