Sporting Beirut 0–3 Tripoli SC: Result & Stats

Sporting Beirut

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tripoli SC

1/9/2022

Premier League · Round 9Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting Beirut31%

×Draw29%

Tripoli SC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting BeirutExpected goals in this matchTripoli SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.19

Sporting Beirut

1.02

Tripoli SC

1.19

Tripoli SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 36 away

0.91

creates per match

0.92

1.45

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Sporting Beirut

0.91

Tripoli SC

0.92

allows per match

Sporting Beirut

1.45

Tripoli SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Beirut ↓

Tripoli SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Beirut or draw

60%

Sporting Beirut or Tripoli SC

71%

Draw or Tripoli SC

69%

Winning margin

Sporting Beirut wins by 2+

12%

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sporting Beirut 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Beirut 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Beirut 3+ goals

8%

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

70%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

33%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)

44%

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Beirut at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Beirut attack 0.91 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Sporting Beirut defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting Beirut scores more

31%

level

29%

Tripoli SC scores more

40%

Tripoli SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff