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Sporting Beirut vs Shabab Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Sporting Beirut
Sporting Beirut
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shabab Al Sahel
Shabab Al Sahel
12/27/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting Beirut30%
×Draw27%
Shabab Al Sahel42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Beirut
1.07
Shabab Al Sahel
1.32

Shabab Al Sahel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sporting Beirut
0.91
Shabab Al Sahel
1.19

allows per match

Sporting Beirut
1.45
Shabab Al Sahel
1.23

finishing

Sporting Beirut+0.00on par
Shabab Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Beirut ↓

Shabab Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting Beirut or draw
58%
Sporting Beirut or Shabab Al Sahel
73%
Draw or Shabab Al Sahel
70%

Winning margin

Sporting Beirut wins by 2+
12%
Shabab Al Sahel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting Beirut 1+ goals
66%
Sporting Beirut 2+ goals
29%
Sporting Beirut 3+ goals
9%
Shabab Al Sahel 1+ goals
73%
Shabab Al Sahel 2+ goals
38%
Shabab Al Sahel 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)
42%
Shabab Al Sahel (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Beirut at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Shabab Al Sahel away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Beirut attack 0.91 + Shabab Al Sahel defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shabab Al Sahel attack 1.19 + Sporting Beirut defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting Beirut scores more
30%
level
27%
Shabab Al Sahel scores more
42%

Shabab Al Sahel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shabab Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sporting Beirut 2–0 Shabab Al Sahel

Sporting Beirut beat Shabab Al Sahel 2-0 in Premier League on December 27, 2021.

The match was played at Amin Abdelnour Stadium in Bhamdoun.