Sporting Beirut 1–2 Al Hikma: Result & Stats

Sporting Beirut

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Hikma

4/19/2022

Premier League · Relegation Round - 7Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sporting Beirut34%

×Draw29%

Al Hikma38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting BeirutExpected goals in this matchAl Hikma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.15

Sporting Beirut

1.07

Al Hikma

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 60 away

0.91

creates per match

0.85

1.45

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sporting Beirut

0.91

Al Hikma

0.85

allows per match

Sporting Beirut

1.45

Al Hikma

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Beirut+0.00on par

Al Hikma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Beirut ↓

Al Hikma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Beirut or draw

62%

Sporting Beirut or Al Hikma

71%

Draw or Al Hikma

66%

Winning margin

Sporting Beirut wins by 2+

13%

Al Hikma wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sporting Beirut 1+ goals

66%

Sporting Beirut 2+ goals

29%

Sporting Beirut 3+ goals

9%

Al Hikma 1+ goals

68%

Al Hikma 2+ goals

32%

Al Hikma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Beirut (draw refunded)

47%

Al Hikma (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Beirut at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Al Hikma away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Beirut attack 0.91 + Al Hikma defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Hikma attack 0.85 + Sporting Beirut defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting Beirut scores more

34%

level

29%

Al Hikma scores more

38%

Al Hikma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Hikma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff