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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Wuppertaler SV — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
CANC
13:00
Wuppertaler SV
Wuppertaler SV
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen39%
×Draw22%
Wuppertaler SV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.88
Wuppertaler SV
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
2.00
Wuppertaler SV
2.38

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.38
Wuppertaler SV
1.75

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Wuppertaler SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
61%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Wuppertaler SV
78%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV
61%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
21%
Wuppertaler SV wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
85%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
56%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
29%
Wuppertaler SV 1+ goals
85%
Wuppertaler SV 2+ goals
56%
Wuppertaler SV 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
50%
Wuppertaler SV (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Wuppertaler SV away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + Wuppertaler SV defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wuppertaler SV attack 2.38 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
39%
level
22%
Wuppertaler SV scores more
39%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportfreunde Siegen vs Wuppertaler SV — Match Preview

Sportfreunde Siegen face Wuppertaler SV on January 11, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.