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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
5/12/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen40%
×Draw24%
Westfalia Rhynern37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.61
Westfalia Rhynern
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
63%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Westfalia Rhynern
76%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
60%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
20%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
80%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
48%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
22%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
79%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
45%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
52%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
40%
level
24%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
37%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Siegen 0–2 Westfalia Rhynern

Westfalia Rhynern beat Sportfreunde Siegen 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.