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Sportfreunde Siegen vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
0 – 2
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
8/29/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen54%
×Draw21%
TuS Haltern24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
2.04
TuS Haltern
1.31

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
76%
Sportfreunde Siegen or TuS Haltern
79%
Draw or TuS Haltern
46%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
32%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
87%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
60%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
33%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
73%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
38%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
69%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
54%
level
21%
TuS Haltern scores more
24%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Siegen vs TuS Haltern

TuS Haltern beat Sportfreunde Siegen 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.