Sportfreunde Siegen 1–1 Türkspor Dortmund

Sportfreunde Siegen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Türkspor Dortmund

8/13/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen46%

×Draw23%

Türkspor Dortmund30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde SiegenExpected goals in this matchTürkspor Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.37

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.75

Türkspor Dortmund

1.37

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

1.72

creates per match

1.51

1.23

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.72

Türkspor Dortmund

1.51

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.23

Türkspor Dortmund

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw

70%

Sportfreunde Siegen or Türkspor Dortmund

77%

Draw or Türkspor Dortmund

54%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

25%

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

83%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

52%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

25%

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals

75%

Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals

40%

Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

61%

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

46%

level

23%

Türkspor Dortmund scores more

30%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff