Sportfreunde Siegen 1–2 SG Wattenscheid 09

Sportfreunde Siegen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

SG Wattenscheid 09

9/24/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen40%

×Draw24%

SG Wattenscheid 0936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde SiegenExpected goals in this matchSG Wattenscheid 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.50

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.61

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

1.72

creates per match

1.76

1.23

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.72

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.76

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.23

SG Wattenscheid 09

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw

64%

Sportfreunde Siegen or SG Wattenscheid 09

76%

Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09

60%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

20%

SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

80%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

48%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

22%

SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals

78%

SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals

44%

SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

53%

SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

40%

level

24%

SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more

36%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff