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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
2 – 0
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
10/11/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen29%
×Draw22%
Kaan-Marienborn49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.42
Kaan-Marienborn
1.91

Kaan-Marienborn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
51%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Kaan-Marienborn
78%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
71%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
13%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
76%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
41%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
17%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
85%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
57%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
37%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
29%
level
22%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
49%

Kaan-Marienborn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Siegen vs Kaan-Marienborn

Sportfreunde Siegen beat Kaan-Marienborn 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.