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Sportfreunde Siegen vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
3/29/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen43%
×Draw25%
Gievenbeck33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.56
Gievenbeck
1.33

Sportfreunde Siegen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
67%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Gievenbeck
75%
Draw or Gievenbeck
57%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
21%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
79%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
46%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
21%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
74%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
38%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
57%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
43%
level
25%
Gievenbeck scores more
33%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Sportfreunde Siegen 2–2 Gievenbeck

Sportfreunde Siegen and Gievenbeck drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.