Sportfreunde Siegen U19 0–3 Kaiserslautern U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kaiserslautern U19

M. Baser 90+5', 71' (pen)

E. Müller 45+1'

4/27/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U1948%

×Draw21%

Kaiserslautern U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19Expected goals in this matchKaiserslautern U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.74

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.20

Kaiserslautern U19

1.74

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

2.14

creates per match

1.62

1.86

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.14

Kaiserslautern U19

1.62

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.86

Kaiserslautern U19

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or draw

69%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or Kaiserslautern U19

79%

Draw or Kaiserslautern U19

52%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

28%

Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

89%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

64%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

37%

Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals

82%

Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals

52%

Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.14 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.20

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.62 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Kaiserslautern U19 scores more

31%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

E. Müller

54'

B. Jungfleisch← D. Tuttobene

67'

M. Baser← I. Elyazidi

67'

V. Haxhiu← K. Ramadani

71'

M. BaserPenalty

76'

J. Lotz← A. Peci

76'

M. Garcia← H. Nakai

76'

M. Zilz← H. El Chaabi

81'

A. Asan← Imad

81'

D. Adrovic← D. Omeragic

85'

L. Meyer← J. Adozi

85'

A. Doruk← N. Tamakloe

85'

D. Rešic← F. Ammann

85'

J. Mensah← M. Stadel

90+5'

M. Baser

Sportfreunde

Kaiserslautern

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Aslan

76'▲J. Lotz←▼A. Peci

76'▲M. Garcia←▼H. Nakai

76'▲M. Zilz←▼H. El Chaabi

81'▲A. Asan←▼Imad

81'▲D. Adrovic←▼D. Omeragic

85'▲L. Meyer←▼J. Adozi

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

LotzGarciaZilzAsanAdrovicMeyerEngel

Manager: E. Baffoun

54'▲B. Jungfleisch←▼D. Tuttobene

67'▲M. Baser←▼I. Elyazidi

67'▲V. Haxhiu←▼K. Ramadani

85'▲A. Doruk←▼N. Tamakloe

85'▲D. Rešic←▼F. Ammann

85'▲J. Mensah←▼M. Stadel

Kaiserslautern U19 substitutes

JungfleischBaserHaxhiuDorukRešicMensahJung