Sportfreunde Lotte 3–2 Vreden: Result & Stats

Sportfreunde Lotte

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Vreden

9/23/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte62%

×Draw20%

Vreden19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde LotteExpected goals in this matchVreden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.17

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.26

Vreden

1.17

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 93% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 90 away

2.62

creates per match

1.46

0.88

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

2.62

Vreden

1.46

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte

0.88

Vreden

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Vreden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw

81%

Sportfreunde Lotte or Vreden

80%

Draw or Vreden

38%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+

39%

Vreden wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals

89%

Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals

66%

Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals

39%

Vreden 1+ goals

69%

Vreden 2+ goals

33%

Vreden 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)

77%

Vreden (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.62 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.26

Vreden attack 1.46 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more

62%

level

20%

Vreden scores more

19%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff