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Sportfreunde Lotte vs Gievenbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
5/14/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte57%
×Draw21%
Gievenbeck21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.02
Gievenbeck
1.16

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 74% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.62
Gievenbeck
1.43

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
0.88
Gievenbeck
1.41

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par
Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Gievenbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw
79%
Sportfreunde Lotte or Gievenbeck
79%
Draw or Gievenbeck
43%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
34%
Gievenbeck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
87%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
60%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
33%
Gievenbeck 1+ goals
69%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
32%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
73%
Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Gievenbeck away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.62 + Gievenbeck defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Gievenbeck attack 1.43 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
57%
level
21%
Gievenbeck scores more
21%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Lotte vs Gievenbeck

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Gievenbeck 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.