Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln — League #87 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Sportfreunde Lotte36%
Fortuna Köln39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sportfreunde Lotte ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
Fortuna Köln away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.88 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.46
Fortuna Köln attack 1.67 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Fortuna Köln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Fortuna Köln
Paderborn II
Schalke 04 II
Bochum II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Bonner SC
Wiedenbrück
SV Rodinghausen
FC Gutersloh
Köln IISportfreunde Lotte
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Borussia M'gladbach II
Wuppertaler SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
FC Bocholt
SSVg Velbert
Borussia Dortmund IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sportfreunde Lotte host Fortuna Köln on Saturday, 21 September 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #87 2026/2027 season.
Sportfreunde Lotte 1 – 1 Fortuna Köln
Sportfreunde Lotte and Fortuna Köln drew 1-1 in League #87 on September 21, 2024.
Goals: S. Batarilo (78' pen), B. Nyuydine (90+6').
The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.