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Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs VfR Aalen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
VfR Aalen
VfR Aalen
7/19/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Röser-Arena Dorfmerkingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen8%
×Draw21%
VfR Aalen71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
0.45
VfR Aalen
1.81

VfR Aalen creates 302% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
0.40
VfR Aalen
1.83

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.80
VfR Aalen
0.50

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par
VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

VfR Aalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–119%
0–217%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw
29%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or VfR Aalen
79%
Draw or VfR Aalen
92%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
2%
VfR Aalen wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
36%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
8%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
1%
VfR Aalen 1+ goals
84%
VfR Aalen 2+ goals
54%
VfR Aalen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
11%
VfR Aalen (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

VfR Aalen away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 0.40 + VfR Aalen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

VfR Aalen attack 1.83 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
8%
level
21%
VfR Aalen scores more
71%

VfR Aalen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 0–1 VfR Aalen

VfR Aalen beat Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Röser-Arena Dorfmerkingen in Dorfmerkingen.