Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2–2 SV Linx

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

SV Linx

4/30/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Röser-Arena Dorfmerkingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen50%

×Draw22%

SV Linx28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde DorfmerkingenExpected goals in this matchSV Linx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.42

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.94

SV Linx

1.42

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.28

creates per match

1.52

1.32

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.28

SV Linx

1.52

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.32

SV Linx

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

SV Linx →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw

72%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or SV Linx

78%

Draw or SV Linx

50%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

28%

SV Linx wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

86%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

58%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

30%

SV Linx 1+ goals

76%

SV Linx 2+ goals

41%

SV Linx 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

64%

SV Linx (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.94

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

50%

level

22%

SV Linx scores more

28%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff