Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 0–2 Stuttgart II

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

0 – 2

Stuttgart II

7/2/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Röser-Arena Dorfmerkingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen22%

×Draw22%

Stuttgart II56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde DorfmerkingenExpected goals in this matchStuttgart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.90

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.10

Stuttgart II

1.90

Stuttgart II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.40

creates per match

2.00

1.80

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

0.40

Stuttgart II

2.00

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

1.80

Stuttgart II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Stuttgart II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

Stuttgart II →

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw

44%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or Stuttgart II

78%

Draw or Stuttgart II

78%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+

Stuttgart II wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals

67%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals

30%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals

10%

Stuttgart II 1+ goals

85%

Stuttgart II 2+ goals

56%

Stuttgart II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)

28%

Stuttgart II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Stuttgart II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 0.40 + Stuttgart II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Stuttgart II attack 2.00 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more

22%

level

22%

Stuttgart II scores more

56%

Stuttgart II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stuttgart II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff