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Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs Oberachern — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
FT
1 – 4
Oberachern
Oberachern
11/13/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17Sportanlage Felsenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen41%
×Draw25%
Oberachern34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.51
Oberachern
1.35

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.28
Oberachern
1.38

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.32
Oberachern
1.74

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par
Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

Oberachern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw
66%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or Oberachern
75%
Draw or Oberachern
59%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
20%
Oberachern wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
78%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
44%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
19%
Oberachern 1+ goals
74%
Oberachern 2+ goals
39%
Oberachern 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
55%
Oberachern (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Oberachern attack 1.38 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
41%
level
25%
Oberachern scores more
34%

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs Oberachern

Oberachern beat Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Felsenstraße in Dorfmerkingen.