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Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
FT
1 – 1
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
10/2/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Sportanlage Felsenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen37%
×Draw25%
Göppinger SV38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.38
Göppinger SV
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.28
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.32
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw
62%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or Göppinger SV
75%
Draw or Göppinger SV
63%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
17%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
75%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
40%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
16%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
76%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
41%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
49%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
37%
level
25%
Göppinger SV scores more
38%

Göppinger SV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1 – 1 Göppinger SV

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen and Göppinger SV drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Felsenstraße in Dorfmerkingen.