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Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
FT
0 – 3
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
8/7/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Sportanlage Felsenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen35%
×Draw25%
CFR Pforzheim40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.41
CFR Pforzheim
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.28
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.32
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or draw
60%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen or CFR Pforzheim
75%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
65%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
16%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
76%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
41%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
17%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
78%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
45%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
47%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.28 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
35%
level
25%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
40%

CFR Pforzheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen vs CFR Pforzheim

CFR Pforzheim beat Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sportanlage Felsenstraße in Dorfmerkingen.