Sport Victoria 2–1 Sport Loreto: Result & Stats

Sport Victoria

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sport Loreto

6/24/2018

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Victoria47%

×Draw22%

Sport Loreto31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport VictoriaExpected goals in this matchSport Loreto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.52

Sport Victoria

1.90

Sport Loreto

1.52

Sport Victoria creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

2.08

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Sport Victoria

1.20

Sport Loreto

0.96

allows per match

Sport Victoria

2.08

Sport Loreto

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

Sport Loreto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw

69%

Sport Victoria or Sport Loreto

78%

Draw or Sport Loreto

53%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+

26%

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals

85%

Sport Victoria 2+ goals

56%

Sport Victoria 3+ goals

29%

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

78%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

45%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)

60%

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

Sport Loreto away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + Sport Loreto defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sport Loreto attack 0.96 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sport Victoria scores more

47%

level

22%

Sport Loreto scores more

31%

Sport Victoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sport Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff