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Sport Victoria vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
4/8/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Victoria48%
×Draw21%
LOS Caimanes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Victoria
2.08
LOS Caimanes
1.62

Sport Victoria creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sport Victoria
1.20
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Sport Victoria
2.08
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Sport Victoria+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Victoria ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sport Victoria or draw
70%
Sport Victoria or LOS Caimanes
79%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
52%

Winning margin

Sport Victoria wins by 2+
28%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sport Victoria 1+ goals
87%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
61%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
34%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
80%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
48%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
61%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Victoria at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 25 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Victoria attack 1.20 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.08

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Sport Victoria defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Victoria scores more
48%
level
21%
LOS Caimanes scores more
30%

Sport Victoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Victoria vs LOS Caimanes

Sport Victoria and LOS Caimanes drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Picasso Peratta (Ica).