Sport Sinop 2–0 Santa Cruz MT: Result & Stats

Sport Sinop

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz MT

5/12/2024

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sport Sinop52%

×Draw27%

Santa Cruz MT21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport SinopExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz MT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.78

Sport Sinop

1.42

Santa Cruz MT

0.78

Sport Sinop creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

0.56

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sport Sinop

1.50

Santa Cruz MT

0.56

allows per match

Sport Sinop

1.00

Santa Cruz MT

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Sinop+0.00on par

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Sinop ↓

Santa Cruz MT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sport Sinop or draw

79%

Sport Sinop or Santa Cruz MT

73%

Draw or Santa Cruz MT

48%

Winning margin

Sport Sinop wins by 2+

26%

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sport Sinop 1+ goals

76%

Sport Sinop 2+ goals

41%

Sport Sinop 3+ goals

17%

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

54%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

18%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sport Sinop (draw refunded)

72%

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Sinop at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Santa Cruz MT away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Sinop attack 1.50 + Santa Cruz MT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Santa Cruz MT attack 0.56 + Sport Sinop defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sport Sinop scores more

52%

level

27%

Santa Cruz MT scores more

21%

Sport Sinop at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sport Sinop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff