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Sport Sinop vs Poconé — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sport Sinop
Sport Sinop
FT
2 – 2
Poconé
Poconé
6/16/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sport Sinop33%
×Draw24%
Poconé43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Sinop
1.38
Poconé
1.63

Poconé creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sport Sinop
1.50
Poconé
2.25

allows per match

Sport Sinop
1.00
Poconé
1.25

finishing

Sport Sinop+0.00on par
Poconé+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Sinop ↓

Poconé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sport Sinop or draw
57%
Sport Sinop or Poconé
76%
Draw or Poconé
67%

Winning margin

Sport Sinop wins by 2+
15%
Poconé wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sport Sinop 1+ goals
75%
Sport Sinop 2+ goals
40%
Sport Sinop 3+ goals
16%
Poconé 1+ goals
80%
Poconé 2+ goals
48%
Poconé 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sport Sinop (draw refunded)
43%
Poconé (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Sinop at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Poconé away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Sinop attack 1.50 + Poconé defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Poconé attack 2.25 + Sport Sinop defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Sinop scores more
33%
level
24%
Poconé scores more
43%

Poconé at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Poconé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Sinop vs Poconé

Sport Sinop and Poconé drew 2-2 in Matogrossense 2 on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú in Sinop, Mato Grosso.