Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Sinop vs Campo Novo — Matogrossense 2 2024

Sport Sinop
Sport Sinop
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Campo Novo
Campo Novo
4/28/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sport Sinop71%
×Draw16%
Campo Novo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Sinop
2.83
Campo Novo
1.17

Sport Sinop creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sport Sinop
1.50
Campo Novo
1.33

allows per match

Sport Sinop
1.00
Campo Novo
4.17

finishing

Sport Sinop+0.00on par
Campo Novo+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Sinop ↓

Campo Novo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sport Sinop or draw
87%
Sport Sinop or Campo Novo
84%
Draw or Campo Novo
29%

Winning margin

Sport Sinop wins by 2+
50%
Campo Novo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sport Sinop 1+ goals
94%
Sport Sinop 2+ goals
77%
Sport Sinop 3+ goals
53%
Campo Novo 1+ goals
69%
Campo Novo 2+ goals
33%
Campo Novo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Sinop (draw refunded)
84%
Campo Novo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Sinop at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Campo Novo away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Sinop attack 1.50 + Campo Novo defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

Campo Novo attack 1.33 + Sport Sinop defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sport Sinop scores more
71%
level
16%
Campo Novo scores more
13%

Sport Sinop at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sport Sinop will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Sport Sinop 3–1 Campo Novo

Sport Sinop beat Campo Novo 3-1 in Matogrossense 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú in Sinop, Mato Grosso.