Sport Rosario 1–0 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Sport Rosario

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

9/29/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 6Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario47%

×Draw25%

UTC Cajamarca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RosarioExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.21

Sport Rosario

1.63

UTC Cajamarca

1.21

Sport Rosario creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 144 away

1.64

creates per match

0.91

1.50

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sport Rosario

1.64

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Sport Rosario

1.50

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw

72%

Sport Rosario or UTC Cajamarca

75%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

53%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+

24%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals

80%

Sport Rosario 2+ goals

48%

Sport Rosario 3+ goals

22%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

70%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

34%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)

62%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sport Rosario scores more

47%

level

25%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

28%

Sport Rosario at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff