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Sport Rosario vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
9/12/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario45%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Municipal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Rosario
1.69
Deportivo Municipal
1.38

Sport Rosario creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sport Rosario
1.64
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Sport Rosario
1.50
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw
69%
Sport Rosario or Deportivo Municipal
76%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
55%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals
82%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
50%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
24%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.69

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sport Rosario scores more
45%
level
24%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
31%

Sport Rosario at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sport Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Rosario 0–1 Deportivo Municipal

Deportivo Municipal beat Sport Rosario 1-0 in Primera División on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.