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Sport Recife W vs Vitória BA W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
4/18/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Ademir Cunha (Paulista, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife W50%
×Draw23%
Vitória BA W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife W
1.80
Vitória BA W
1.28

Sport Recife W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sport Recife W
0.95
Vitória BA W
0.70

allows per match

Sport Recife W
1.86
Vitória BA W
2.65

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par
Vitória BA W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Vitória BA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw
73%
Sport Recife W or Vitória BA W
77%
Draw or Vitória BA W
50%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+
27%
Vitória BA W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals
83%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
54%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
27%
Vitória BA W 1+ goals
72%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
37%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
64%
Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Vitória BA W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Vitória BA W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vitória BA W attack 0.70 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Recife W scores more
50%
level
23%
Vitória BA W scores more
27%

Sport Recife W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Recife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife W vs Vitória BA W

Vitória BA W beat Sport Recife W 5-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Ademir Cunha (Paulista, Pernambuco).