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Sport Recife W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
7/18/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Ademir Cunha (Paulista, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife W31%
×Draw26%
Sao Jose W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife W
1.18
Sao Jose W
1.46

Sao Jose W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sport Recife W
0.95
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Sport Recife W
1.86
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw
56%
Sport Recife W or Sao Jose W
74%
Draw or Sao Jose W
69%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+
12%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals
69%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
33%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
12%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
77%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
43%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
41%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife W scores more
31%
level
26%
Sao Jose W scores more
44%

Sao Jose W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife W vs Sao Jose W

Sao Jose W beat Sport Recife W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on July 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Ademir Cunha (Paulista, Pernambuco).