Sport Recife W 0–2 Real Brasília W: Result & Stats

Sport Recife W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Brasília W

3/27/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife W42%

×Draw25%

Real Brasília W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Recife WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.34

Sport Recife W

1.52

Real Brasília W

1.34

Sport Recife W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

0.95

creates per match

0.82

1.86

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Sport Recife W

0.95

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

Sport Recife W

1.86

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw

66%

Sport Recife W or Real Brasília W

75%

Draw or Real Brasília W

58%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

20%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

78%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

45%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

20%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

74%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

39%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

55%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Recife W scores more

42%

level

25%

Real Brasília W scores more

34%

Sport Recife W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Recife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff