Sport Recife W 1–2 Minas ICESP W: Result & Stats

Sport Recife W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Minas ICESP W

5/8/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Ademir Cunha (Paulista, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife W40%

×Draw26%

Minas ICESP W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Recife WExpected goals in this matchMinas ICESP W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.25

Sport Recife W

1.39

Minas ICESP W

1.25

Sport Recife W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

0.95

creates per match

0.63

1.86

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sport Recife W

0.95

Minas ICESP W

0.63

allows per match

Sport Recife W

1.86

Minas ICESP W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Minas ICESP W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw

66%

Sport Recife W or Minas ICESP W

74%

Draw or Minas ICESP W

60%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

19%

Minas ICESP W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

75%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

40%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

16%

Minas ICESP W 1+ goals

71%

Minas ICESP W 2+ goals

36%

Minas ICESP W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

54%

Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport Recife W scores more

40%

level

26%

Minas ICESP W scores more

34%

Sport Recife W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport Recife W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff