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Sport Recife W vs Corinthians W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Corinthians W
Corinthians W
5/9/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sport Recife W14%
×Draw19%
Corinthians W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife W
0.88
Corinthians W
2.16

Corinthians W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sport Recife W
0.95
Corinthians W
2.46

allows per match

Sport Recife W
1.86
Corinthians W
0.80

finishing

Sport Recife W+0.00on par
Corinthians W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife W ↓

Corinthians W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sport Recife W or draw
34%
Sport Recife W or Corinthians W
81%
Draw or Corinthians W
86%

Winning margin

Sport Recife W wins by 2+
4%
Corinthians W wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Sport Recife W 1+ goals
59%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
22%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
6%
Corinthians W 1+ goals
88%
Corinthians W 2+ goals
63%
Corinthians W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
18%
Corinthians W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Corinthians W away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife W attack 0.95 + Corinthians W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Corinthians W attack 2.46 + Sport Recife W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sport Recife W scores more
14%
level
19%
Corinthians W scores more
66%

Corinthians W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Sport Recife W 0–1 Corinthians W

Corinthians W beat Sport Recife W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 9, 2018.