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Sport Recife vs Vitoria — Serie A 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Vitoria
Vitoria
11/23/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 35Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sport Recife45%
×Draw27%
Vitoria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.40
Vitoria
1.04

Sport Recife creates 35% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
0.88
Vitoria
0.87

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.21
Vitoria
1.91

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
72%
Sport Recife or Vitoria
73%
Draw or Vitoria
55%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
22%
Vitoria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
75%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
41%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
17%
Vitoria 1+ goals
65%
Vitoria 2+ goals
28%
Vitoria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
62%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.88 + Vitoria defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vitoria attack 0.87 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sport Recife scores more
45%
level
27%
Vitoria scores more
28%

Sport Recife at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Vitoria

Vitoria beat Sport Recife 3-1 in Serie A on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife.