Sport Recife 1–1 Vila Nova: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vila Nova

Pedro Perotti 78'

Janderson 59'

4/1/2026

Serie B · Round 2Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife42%

×Draw26%

Vila Nova31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Sport Recife

1.40

Vila Nova

1.17

Sport Recife creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

1.03

1.30

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.48

Vila Nova

1.03

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Vila Nova

1.32

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less

Vila Nova+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

69%

Sport Recife or Vila Nova

74%

Draw or Vila Nova

58%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

20%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

75%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

41%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

17%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

69%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

33%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

57%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Vila Nova defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vila Nova attack 1.03 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Recife scores more

42%

level

26%

Vila Nova scores more

31%

Sport Recife at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

60

Felipinho

Sport Recife · M

7.7

Match Events

35'

Pedro Perotti← Ze Roberto

36'

40'

43'

45+5'

45+5'

Iury CastilhoCard upgrade

45+8'

Nathan Camargo

46'

Willian Maranhao← Nathan Camargo

53'

Hayner

57'

Elias← Hayner

59'

Janderson↳ Ryan

67'

de Pena Carlos← Ze Gabriel

69'

Yago Felipe

77'

Pedro Martins← Augusto

77'

Clayson← Chrystian Barletta

77'

Marlon Douglas← Yago Felipe

78'

Bruno Xavier← Ryan

78'

Dodo← Janderson

78'

Pedro Perotti↳ Felipinho

88'

Dudu← Tiago Pagnussat

90+7'

Dellatorre

90+6'

DellatorreCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportVila

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots16

0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.51

6Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots16

7On Target2

2Off Target11

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

317Total Passes505

246Accurate Passes448

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

0.19Goals Prevented0.19

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2