Sport Recife 3–2 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Tombense

Luciano Juba 54'

Jorginho 34', 14'

Alex Sandro 70', 32'

5/11/2023

Serie B · Round 4Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sport Recife60%

×Draw24%

Tombense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.76

Sport Recife

1.70

Tombense

0.76

Sport Recife creates 124% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

1.74

creates per match

0.74

0.78

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.74

Tombense

0.74

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.78

Tombense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

84%

Sport Recife or Tombense

76%

Draw or Tombense

40%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

34%

Tombense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

82%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

51%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

24%

Tombense 1+ goals

53%

Tombense 2+ goals

18%

Tombense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

78%

Tombense (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.74 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.70

Tombense attack 0.74 + Sport Recife defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sport Recife scores more

60%

level

24%

Tombense scores more

16%

Sport Recife at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jorginho

Sport Recife · M

8.9

Match Events

14'

Jorginho↳ Vágner Love

32'

Alex Sandro↳ Jáderson

33'

Zé Vitor

34'

Jorginho↳ Rafael Thyere

36'

JorginhoGoal confirmed

46'

Marcelinho← Guilherme Santos

46'

Luís Felipe← Zé Vitor

47'

Ronaldo Henrique

54'

Luciano Juba↳ Jorginho

63'

Pierre← Elton

63'

Luiz Fernando← Jáderson

66'

Pedro Martins← Ronaldo

66'

Wanderson← Edinho

70'

Alex Sandro↳ Luiz Fernando

78'

Bruno Silva

84'

Gabriel Santos← Igor Cariús

84'

Felipinho← Jorginho

84'

Felipe Cruz← Augusto

87'

Luiz Fernando

90+1'

Matheus Vargas← Vágner Love

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportTombense

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots17

8Corners5

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots17

6On Target5

4Off Target9

3Blocked3

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

385Total Passes479

317Accurate Passes407

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1