Sport Recife vs Operario-PR: Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife

Preview

19:00

Operario-PR

7/18/2026

Serie B · Round 18Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

50%

Sport Recife

model favours

50%27%23%

Operario-PR have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sport Recife50%

×Draw27%

Operario-PR23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.89

Sport Recife

1.45

Operario-PR

0.89

Sport Recife creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.63

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.63

Operario-PR

0.83

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.94

Operario-PR

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Operario-PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

77%

Sport Recife or Operario-PR

73%

Draw or Operario-PR

50%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

25%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

77%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

42%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

18%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

59%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

22%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

68%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.63 + Operario-PR defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Operario-PR attack 0.83 + Sport Recife defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Recife scores more

50%

level

27%

Operario-PR scores more

23%

Sport Recife at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Operario-PR have won 4 in a row
Sport Recife score first in only 27% of matches
Operario-PR win just 22% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
40% of Sport Recife’s goals come after the 75th minute
Sport Recife and Operario-PR have never met before