Sport Recife 5–1 Operario-PR: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Operario-PR

Fabinho 90+4', 34'

Vágner Love 90+2', 31', 13'

Giovanni Pavani 70'

10/28/2022

Serie B · Round 37Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sport Recife53%

×Draw25%

Operario-PR22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.92

Sport Recife

1.58

Operario-PR

0.92

Sport Recife creates 72% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

1.75

creates per match

0.88

0.95

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.75

Operario-PR

0.88

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.95

Operario-PR

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Operario-PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

78%

Sport Recife or Operario-PR

75%

Draw or Operario-PR

47%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

28%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

79%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

47%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

21%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

60%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

23%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

71%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.75 + Operario-PR defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Operario-PR attack 0.88 + Sport Recife defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport Recife scores more

53%

level

25%

Operario-PR scores more

22%

Sport Recife at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Vágner Love

Sport Recife · F

9.2

Match Events

13'

Vágner Love↳ Gustavo Coutinho

31'

Vágner Love↳ Eduardo

34'

Fabinho↳ Luciano Juba

40'

40'

41'

59'

66'

Wanderson← Gustavo Coutinho

66'

Giovanni← Sander

70'

Giovanni Pavani↳ Lucas Mendes

71'

Leonardo Kalil← Lucas Mendes

79'

Denner← Ronaldo

79'

Ezequiel← Eduardo

83'

B. Cáceres← Giovanni

83'

Lucas do Carmo← Dirceu

83'

Lucas Vital← Ricardinho

85'

Renie

87'

Felipe Saraiva← J. Reina

87'

Ruan Carvalho← Giovanni Pavani

90+2'

Vágner Love

90+4'

Fabinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportOperario-PR

Overview

56%Possession44%

25Total Shots14

4Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

25Total Shots14

11On Target3

11Off Target6

3Blocked5

13Inside Box10

12Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

543Total Passes420

478Accurate Passes352

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3