Sport Recife 1–0 Corinthians: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

Matheusinho 49'

9/21/2025

Serie A · Round 24Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sport Recife37%

×Draw28%

Corinthians34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.12

Sport Recife

1.18

Corinthians

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

0.93

creates per match

0.83

1.41

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Corinthians

0.83

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.41

Corinthians

1.42

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife+0.01on par

Corinthians+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

66%

Sport Recife or Corinthians

72%

Draw or Corinthians

63%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

16%

Corinthians wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

69%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

33%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

12%

Corinthians 1+ goals

67%

Corinthians 2+ goals

31%

Corinthians 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

52%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 16 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Corinthians defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Corinthians attack 0.83 + Sport Recife defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sport Recife scores more

37%

level

28%

Corinthians scores more

34%

Sport Recife at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Gabriel

Sport Recife · G

7.9

Match Events

6'

Ramon Menezes

14'

Zé LucasGoal cancelled

49'

Matheusinho

61'

Matheusinho

64'

Raniele← F. Angileri

64'

Talles Magno← J. Martinez

69'

Chrystian Barletta← Matheusinho

70'

R. Atencio← Hyoran

78'

Gabriel Vasconcelos

78'

Angel Romero← Vitinho

78'

Dieguinho← Maycon

84'

Matheus Alexandre← Aderlan

85'

Igor Carius← Leo Pereira

85'

Hugo← Matheuzinho

90+8'

90+7'

90+2'

90+3'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCorinthians

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots19

1.05Expected Goals (xG)0.66

8Corners7

17Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots19

3On Target3

4Off Target8

5Blocked8

4Inside Box13

8Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

235Total Passes344

170Accurate Passes281

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

17Fouls9

6Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Corinthians

Sport Recife beat Corinthians 1-0 in Serie A on September 21, 2025.

Goals: Matheusinho (49').

Corinthians controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife.

Sport Recife vs Corinthians — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Corinthians