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Sport Recife vs Bahia — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
2/23/2023Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 5Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Recife50%
×Draw25%
Bahia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.64
Bahia
1.09

Sport Recife creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.78
Bahia
1.27

allows per match

Sport Recife
0.92
Bahia
1.50

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
75%
Sport Recife or Bahia
75%
Draw or Bahia
50%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
27%
Bahia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
81%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
49%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
23%
Bahia 1+ goals
66%
Bahia 2+ goals
30%
Bahia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
66%
Bahia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Bahia away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + Bahia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bahia attack 1.27 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Recife scores more
50%
level
25%
Bahia scores more
25%

Sport Recife at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Bahia

Sport Recife beat Bahia 6-0 in Copa do Nordeste on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.