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Sport Recife vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Avai
Avai
5/19/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 6Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife43%
×Draw26%
Avai31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.46
Avai
1.21

Sport Recife creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.48
Avai
1.13

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.30
Avai
1.44

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less
Avai+0.05on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Avai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
69%
Sport Recife or Avai
74%
Draw or Avai
57%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
21%
Avai wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
77%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
43%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
18%
Avai 1+ goals
70%
Avai 2+ goals
34%
Avai 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
58%
Avai (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Avai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Avai defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Avai attack 1.13 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Recife scores more
43%
level
26%
Avai scores more
31%

Sport Recife at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Avai

Avai beat Sport Recife 2-1 in Serie B on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.