Sport Recife 2–3 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico-MG

Thiago Neves 87' (pen)

Dalberto 33'

Marrony 90+8'

Rafael Thyere 50' (OG)

Jair 7'

2/21/2021

Serie A · Round 37Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sport Recife34%

×Draw28%

Atletico-MG38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.20

Sport Recife

1.13

Atletico-MG

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

0.93

creates per match

0.98

1.42

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Atletico-MG

0.98

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.42

Atletico-MG

1.32

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Sport Recife-0.04on par

Atletico-MG-0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

62%

Sport Recife or Atletico-MG

72%

Draw or Atletico-MG

66%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

14%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

68%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

31%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

11%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

70%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

34%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

48%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Atletico-MG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico-MG attack 0.98 + Sport Recife defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Recife scores more

34%

level

28%

Atletico-MG scores more

38%

Atletico-MG at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Guilherme Arana

Atletico-MG · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

Jair

14'

Eduardo Sasha

20'

Ronaldo Henrique

33'

Dalberto↳ Junior Tavares

45'

Marcão Silva

46'

Márcio Araújo← Ronaldo

50'

Rafael ThyereOwn goal

60'

A. Franco← Calebe

60'

Marrony← Keno

63'

Ewerton← Chico

70'

E. Vargas← Eduardo Sasha

75'

Dalberto

78'

Luciano← Marcão

78'

Gustavo← Marquinhos

79'

M. Zaracho← Jair

81'

Guilherme Arana

83'

Patric

84'

Marrony

87'

Thiago NevesPenalty

89'

Gustavo

90'

Junior Alonso

90+4'

Pedrão← Dalberto

90+8'

Marrony↳ Guilherme Arana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportAtletico-MG

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots25

2Corners4

16Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots25

3On Target10

3Off Target12

3Blocked3

7Inside Box14

2Outside Box11

Passing

39%Possession61%

372Total Passes586

297Accurate Passes513

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

Serie A: Sport Recife 2–3 Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG beat Sport Recife 3-2 in Serie A on February 21, 2021.

Goals: Jair (7'), Dalberto (33'), Rafael Thyere (50' o.g.), Thiago Neves (87' pen), Marrony (90+8').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (61%) and registered 25 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Sport Recife 2–3 Atletico-MG