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Sport Recife vs 4 de Julho — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
3/17/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 3Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sport Recife47%
×Draw26%
4 de Julho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.52
4 de Julho
1.08

Sport Recife creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.78
4 de Julho
1.25

allows per match

Sport Recife
0.92
4 de Julho
1.25

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
73%
Sport Recife or 4 de Julho
74%
Draw or 4 de Julho
53%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
24%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
78%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
45%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
20%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
66%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
29%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
64%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.78 + 4 de Julho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

4 de Julho attack 1.25 + Sport Recife defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sport Recife scores more
47%
level
26%
4 de Julho scores more
27%

Sport Recife at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Sport Recife 1–1 4 de Julho

Sport Recife and 4 de Julho drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.