Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Recife U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Sport Recife U17
Sport Recife U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
4/1/2025Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Quarter-finalsItaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sport Recife U1753%
×Draw22%
Sao Paulo U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife U17
2.00
Sao Paulo U17
1.33

Sport Recife U17 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sport Recife U17
2.67
Sao Paulo U17
1.67

allows per match

Sport Recife U17
1.00
Sao Paulo U17
1.33

finishing

Sport Recife U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sport Recife U17 or draw
75%
Sport Recife U17 or Sao Paulo U17
78%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
47%

Winning margin

Sport Recife U17 wins by 2+
31%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sport Recife U17 1+ goals
86%
Sport Recife U17 2+ goals
59%
Sport Recife U17 3+ goals
32%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
74%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
38%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife U17 (draw refunded)
68%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife U17 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife U17 attack 2.67 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.67 + Sport Recife U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport Recife U17 scores more
53%
level
22%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
25%

Sport Recife U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sport Recife U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Sport Recife U17 0–0 Sao Paulo U17

Sport Recife U17 and Sao Paulo U17 drew 0-0 in Copa do Brasil U17 on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.