Sport Loreto 1–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Sport Loreto

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

7/4/2018

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto42%

×Draw23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.52

Sport Loreto

1.70

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.52

Sport Loreto creates 12% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 69 away

1.68

creates per match

1.07

1.96

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.07

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

65%

Sport Loreto or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

77%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

58%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

82%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

51%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

24%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

78%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

45%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

55%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.70

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.07 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

42%

level

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

35%

Sport Loreto at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff