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Sport Loreto vs Cesar Vallejo — Segunda División 2018

Sport Loreto
Sport Loreto
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
7/1/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sport Loreto33%
×Draw24%
Cesar Vallejo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Loreto
1.39
Cesar Vallejo
1.60

Cesar Vallejo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sport Loreto
1.68
Cesar Vallejo
1.24

allows per match

Sport Loreto
1.96
Cesar Vallejo
1.09

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw
58%
Sport Loreto or Cesar Vallejo
76%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
67%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+
15%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals
75%
Sport Loreto 2+ goals
40%
Sport Loreto 3+ goals
16%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
80%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
47%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)
44%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Loreto scores more
33%
level
24%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
42%

Cesar Vallejo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Loreto vs Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat Sport Loreto 4-0 in Segunda División on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Aliardo Soria Pérez (Pucallpa).