Sport Loreto 5–0 Alfredo Salinas: Result & Stats

Sport Loreto

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Alfredo Salinas

4/15/2018

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal Luis Velásquez Salinas (Aguaytia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sport Loreto60%

×Draw20%

Alfredo Salinas20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport LoretoExpected goals in this matchAlfredo Salinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.20

Sport Loreto

2.19

Alfredo Salinas

1.20

Sport Loreto creates 83% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.68

creates per match

0.43

1.96

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Sport Loreto

1.68

Alfredo Salinas

0.43

allows per match

Sport Loreto

1.96

Alfredo Salinas

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Loreto+0.00on par

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Loreto ↓

Alfredo Salinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sport Loreto or draw

80%

Sport Loreto or Alfredo Salinas

80%

Draw or Alfredo Salinas

40%

Winning margin

Sport Loreto wins by 2+

37%

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Loreto 1+ goals

89%

Sport Loreto 2+ goals

64%

Sport Loreto 3+ goals

37%

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

70%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

34%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Loreto (draw refunded)

75%

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Loreto at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Loreto attack 1.68 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Sport Loreto defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sport Loreto scores more

60%

level

20%

Alfredo Salinas scores more

20%

Sport Loreto at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sport Loreto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff