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Sport Huancayo vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
Preview
18:00
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
7/25/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Huancayo
Big match
50%
Sport Huancayo
model favours
50%26%24%

Sport Huancayo score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sport Huancayo50%
×Draw26%
Atletico Grau24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.52
Atletico Grau
0.97

Sport Huancayo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.66
Atletico Grau
0.86

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.07
Atletico Grau
1.38

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
76%
Sport Huancayo or Atletico Grau
74%
Draw or Atletico Grau
50%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
78%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
45%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
20%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
67%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.66 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
50%
level
26%
Atletico Grau scores more
24%

Sport Huancayo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 61% of Atletico Grau’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Sport Huancayo have won 3 in a row
  • Atletico Grau are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both teams score in 85% of Sport Huancayo’s matches
  • 77% of Atletico Grau’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 56% of Sport Huancayo’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sport Huancayo
Balanced
Atletico Grau
Balanced
51%Possession52%
79%Pass accuracy79%
12.2Shots11.1
1.40xGBiggest gap1.00
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sport HuancayoAtletico Grau

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Sport Huancayo
4
Draws
2
Atletico Grau
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
0–01–33–01–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Huancayo
WWWDL
Grau
WDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sport Huancayo host Atletico Grau

July 25, 2026: Sport Huancayo take on Atletico Grau in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sport Huancayo host Atletico Grau at Estadio Huancayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.