Atletico Grau 3–1 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Huancayo

J. Reyes 83'

N. Bandiera 49'

T. Sandoval 8'

J. Posito 88'

9/26/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Atletico Grau49%

×Draw26%

Sport Huancayo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.03

Atletico Grau

1.52

Sport Huancayo

1.03

Atletico Grau creates 48% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 142 away

1.55

creates per match

1.05

1.01

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.55

Sport Huancayo

1.05

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.01

Sport Huancayo

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

74%

Atletico Grau or Sport Huancayo

74%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

25%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

20%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

64%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

28%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

65%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.01 · 93 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.49 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.55 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

49%

level

26%

Sport Huancayo scores more

26%

Atletico Grau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Sandoval

Atletico Grau · F

8.7

Match Events

8'

T. Sandoval↳ N. Bandiera

32'

A. Perez← M. Gaona

45+2'

Rodrigo Tapia

49'

N. Bandiera↳ T. Sandoval

58'

M. de Jesus← N. Lujan

58'

P. Magallanes← J. Sanguinetti

67'

J. Herrera← E. Fernandez

68'

Juan Garro

68'

J. Reyes← J. Garro

68'

R. Vilca← P. de la Cruz

68'

J. Posito← R. Huaccha

78'

R. Ruidiaz← N. Bandiera

83'

J. Reyes↳ R. Vilca

88'

J. Posito↳ J. Herrera

89'

Herrera Joel← J. Rostaing

89'

A. Vasquez← T. Sandoval

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSport

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots7

4Corners3

11Fouls1

Shots

18Total Shots7

5On Target3

7Off Target1

6Blocked3

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

411Total Passes379

315Accurate Passes300

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls1

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4