Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Molinos El Pirata — Segunda División 2018

Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
7/22/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors52%
×Draw23%
Molinos El Pirata25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.77
Molinos El Pirata
1.15

Sport Chavelines Juniors creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.45
Molinos El Pirata
0.95

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.35
Molinos El Pirata
2.08

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par
Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Molinos El Pirata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw
75%
Sport Chavelines Juniors or Molinos El Pirata
77%
Draw or Molinos El Pirata
48%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
29%
Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
83%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
53%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
26%
Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
68%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
32%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
68%
Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
52%
level
23%
Molinos El Pirata scores more
25%

Sport Chavelines Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sport Chavelines Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Sport Chavelines Juniors 3–2 Molinos El Pirata

Sport Chavelines Juniors beat Molinos El Pirata 3-2 in Segunda División on July 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.